| 7 Deadly Scenarios: A Military Futurist Explores War in the 21st Century |  | Author: Andrew Krepinevich
Publisher: Bantam
Category: Book
List Price: $27.00
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Seller: abmediaservices
Rating:  18 reviews
Sales Rank: 29,807
Media: Hardcover
Pages: 352
Number Of Items: 1
Shipping Weight (lbs): 1.2
Dimensions (in): 9.1 x 6.4 x 1.3
ISBN: 0553805398
Dewey Decimal Number: 355.033073
EAN: 9780553805390
Publication Date: January 27, 2009
Availability: Usually ships in 1-2 business days
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Product Description
A global pandemic finds millions swarming across the U.S. border.
Major U.S. cities are leveled by black-market nukes.
China’s growing civil unrest ignites a global showdown.
Pakistan’s collapse leads to a hunt for its nuclear weapons.
What if the worst that could happen actually happens? How would we respond? Are we ready?
These are the questions that Andrew Krepinevich asks—and answers—in this timely and often chilling new book, which describes the changing face of war in the twenty-first century and identifies seven deadly scenarios that threaten our security in the crucial years ahead. As president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and consultant to secretaries of defense, the CIA, the Homeland Security Council and the Joint Forces Command, Krepinevich’s job is to think the unthinkable—and prepare a response in the event our worst nightmares become reality.
Basing his analysis on open intelligence sources, an assessment of the latest global and political trends, and his knowledge of contemporary military history, Krepinevich starts each of the seven scenarios in the context of current geopolitical realities and vividly tracks the path to crisis. From the implosion of Pakistan to a worldwide cyberattack, from the consequences of a timed withdrawal from Iraq to the likelihood of a China on the march, Krepinevich reveals the forces—both overt and covert—that are in play; the ambitions of world powers, terrorist groups, and rogue states; and the actions and counteractions both our enemies and our allies can be expected to take.
As riveting as a thriller, 7 Deadly Scenarios takes you inside the corridors of power, peers into the world of defense planning, and explores U.S. military and political strategy in the past, present, and likely future. The result is a must-read book that will trigger discussion, thought, and—hopefully—action.
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Showing reviews 1-5 of 18
 Sobering reading March 7, 2009
Paul Lappen (Manchester, CT USA)
26 out of 30 found this review helpful
Looking at the changing face of war in the 21st Century, this book looks at several deadly scenarios that will threaten America's, and the world's, security in the near future.
A large part of the world's oil tankers have to travel through two geographic choke points: the Strait of Malacca, between Malaysia and Indonesia, and the Persian Gulf. What would happen to the price of oil, and the world economy, if one was closed because a supertanker was sunk in the most inconvenient spot, and the other was closed because Iran decided to flex its political muscle?
Muslim terrorists set off several black-market nuclear weapons in US cities. Beset with internal strife, China decides to take back Taiwan, once and for all. They also send diesel submarines all over the world, to cause lots of economic trouble for any country who considers doing something about it. The Pakistani government collapses, and some of its nuclear weapons find their way into the hands of the more fundamentalist members of the military. There's one about America dealing with a major cyberattack, and one about what will happen after America withdraws from Iraq (faster than it intended). Remember bird flu, from a couple of years ago? Well, it's back, mutated into a form that can be easily transmitted from person to person. Shopping malls and other public places are deserted, hospitals are flooded with the sick and dying, America doesn't have nearly enough retroviral drugs even for emergency personnel, and it takes time to make more. To make things worse, the White House has just gotten word of a human flood of 8 million sick Latin Americans, desperate to reach America. They are scheduled to reach the US-Mexican border in a couple of days.
This is avery sobering, and utterly fascinating, look at what the future may hold. It's not an attempt to predict the future, but to show the sort of things that senior planners at the Pentagon are, or had better be, thinking about. Highly recommended.
Clarion Call March 31, 2009
Charles Drobny (Houston, TX)
10 out of 13 found this review helpful
7 Deadly Scenarios is a logically presented, well written and nicely crafted wake up call for the defense establishment and the Nation. Krepinevich uses history to illustrate how ill prepared we are for the next likely conflict. The scenarios are as believable as they are horrific both in the scope of the threats and our inability to parry them effectively. It is not hard to imagine a few million Mexicans fleeing a pandemic and streaming unchallenged across the Rio Grande. The circumstances leading to each are believable, appropriately documented and accurately portrayed. A smuggled nuke explodes in San Antonio and paralyzes first responders across Texas.
The narratives read like a newspaper account should - factual and devoid of commentary or political agenda. The writing style oscillates between scholarly presentation and captivating contemporary thriller. As a reader you get scared by the threats, alarmed by the facts and enthralled by the projections.
These are not pie-in-the-sky scare tactics by some minor novelist stacking assumption upon nonsense. Krepinevich is a strategic insider who knows the players; but unlike much of what comes out of Washington, he writes without ideological agenda. He lines up his facts and presents them constantly whether meshed into the narratives or included in the ubiquitous footnotes. Unlike most of the bias that comes out of Washington this author has no deep agenda other than the security and prosperity of the United States. His purpose is as clarion call to warn us to action out of our insistence on preparing for the last conflict not the one we'll surely face.
This book should scare the &#^$* out of you... March 31, 2010
Daimion
4 out of 5 found this review helpful
Unless you are not planning to be around in a few years, this book should scare the $#!&@ out of you. Why you ask? Is it about graphic violence and torture? No. Is it about Monsters and Demons? No. Is it about the end of the world? Well - maybe.
"7 Deadly Scenarios" is not a "story" book per se. It's an exposition on seven possible scenarios that could confront the US and our military in the not too distant future. It's written by Andrew F. Krepinevich, president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. He's also a distinguished visiting professor at George Mason University's School of Public Policy. He served for 21 years in the Army and has a PhD from Harvard. You could say that he knows his stuff.
I won't dive deep in to the scenarios themselves - I'll leave those for you to read - but here is a tease:
- What would happen is Pakistan collapsed and their nukes fell in to rouge hands?
- How would we react if terrorist where able to detonate a series of nuclear bombs in major American cities?
- Could we maintain order and civility if America were hit with a pandemic illness, much like the last great flu pandemic in 1918?
- If the Middle East finally dissolved in to open warfare, and Iran pledged nuclear attack on Israel - would we come to their aid?
- In a conflict over Taiwan, how would China use cyber warfare and asymmetrical force to counteract US military might?
- If Muslin extremists disrupted global shipping lanes and oil delivery - could the world economy survive?
- If we pull out of Iraq, would it create a power vacuum ready to be filled by Muslim extremists, Iran, Russia, or even China?
All of the scenarios are eerily plausible, and written in a style that could have come straight from a news report, five years in the future. They make you stop and think - are we ready for what could be coming our way?
A Wake-Up Call for the Polyanna May 24, 2009
James A. Stehr (Alameda CA)
2 out of 3 found this review helpful
Wall Street Journal? So, what do they know about good books? Well, their review of this one piqued my curiosity, so I ordered a copy. Virtually everything in this page-turner is sobering and frightening, and virtually nothing in it is all that far-fetched. If you think all is rosey up ahead after the economic recovery, think again, and check out this MUST READ!
Read it, then share it! January 8, 2010
Bill (California)
2 out of 3 found this review helpful
Buy this book, or at least demand that your local library buy this book.
As a normal person with a reasonable IQ, I am continually frustrated by the inability of our government to look forward. Just two weeks ago someone attempted to take down a plane in its last hour of flight by igniting his underwear, so now our government, in all its wisdom, doesn't want us to have anything on our laps in the last 60 minutes. But one minute before that, it's OK. Huh?! (In my mind, that's reacting to the last threat, not preparing for the next threat.)
This book is about the next threats. Not someone taking down a single plane, but massive events that change the world.
After reading it, I expect that many interventionists will re-examine their beliefs. That's a powerful statement, but read this book, and you might agree with me.
Showing reviews 1-5 of 18
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